Climate change and the trumpets of fate sound again

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There is nothing new about climate change, nor the predictions that “this time we are doomed for sure!”

About half a century after the Northern Hemisphere finally began to warm after a five-century-long Little Ice Age, an 1895 New York Times article warned: “Prospects for another Ice Age; Geologists think the world could be frozen again.

In the space of a quarter of a century, the threat has become terrible. According to a 1923 Chicago Tribune headline, “Scientist Says Arctic Ice Will Wipe Out Canada.”

Ten years later, in 1933, the US Weather Bureau seemed optimistic that perhaps our northern neighbors could dodge those galloping glaciers after all, noting a “…widespread and persistent trend toward warmer weather…Our climate does it change? »

In 1938, the Chicago Tribune reported, “Experts question 20-year rise in mercury…Chicago ranks first among thousands of cities worldwide affected by mysterious global warming trend over the past two decades.”

That same year – and incidentally a much warmer year than today – the Royal Meteorological Society predicted that “global warming, caused by humans heating the planet with carbon dioxide, is likely to s ‘prove beneficial to mankind in many ways, in addition to the provision of heat and electricity’. .”

Yup…little doubt about this change. And for a moment, that seemed like welcome global warming.

As the Washington Post noted in 1939, “The gaffers who claim that winters were harsher when they were boys are quite right…meteorologists have no doubt that the world, at least for the time being, is getting warmer.”

In 1952, a New York Times report titled “Our Climate Change” confirmed, “…we have learned that the world has warmed over the past half-century.”

And for a time, until the 1970s, this warming was generally viewed quite favorably, albeit with mixed benefits.

The US News and World Report observed in 1954 that “…winters are getting milder, summers drier. Glaciers are retreating, deserts are growing.

The New York Times reported good news for shippers in 1969, noting that “…Arctic sea ice is thinning and the ocean at the North Pole could become an open sea within a decade or two.”

The following year, all bets on warm blessings were off, as the Washington Post advised in 1970, “…get your long johns on, haters of the cold – the worst may be yet to come…he won’t there is no relief in sight. ”

And the reason for this reversal?

A Boston Globe report that year, “Scientist Predicts New Ice Age by 21st Century”, blamed population growth.

The article warned: “Air pollution could obliterate the sun and cause a new ice age in the first third of the next century if the population continues to grow…cooling water demands will cause everyone to boil dry. flow of rivers and streams in the continental United States. .”

A Washington Post article the following year, “American Scientist Sees New Ice Age Coming,” quotes SJ Rasool, a research associate at NASA and Columbia University, who predicted that: “within 50 next few years, the fine dust man will constantly put into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels could filter out so much sunlight that the average temperature could drop six degrees…enough to trigger an ice age!

Yes… an immediate man-made climate emergency.

Science Digest sounded the alarm in 1973: “At this point, we don’t have the comfortable distance of tens of thousands of years to prepare for the next ice age. Once the frost starts, it will be too late.

In 1974, The New York Times wrote: “…the facts of present-day climate change are such that the most optimistic experts would attribute near certainty to a major crop failure…mass deaths from starvation, and probably the ‘anarchy and violence’.

A Time magazine editorial that year said: “The telltale signs are everywhere – from the unexpected persistence and thickness of sea ice in the waters around Iceland to the southward migration of a loving creature heat like the armadillo of the Midwest.

Science News published a 1975 article titled “The Ice Age Cometh,” with an image of New York City being swallowed by a glacier that noted a clear and urgent threat…and the National Academy of Sciences said accepted.

In 1978, The New York Times proclaimed that an “international team of specialists finds no end in sight to the 30-year cooling in the northern hemisphere”.

Ten years later, and after warning of an impending ice age over the previous two and a half decades, then Sen. Al Gore’s Scientific Technology and Space Committee hearings in 1988 heralded a man-made contrary crisis.

The star witness was NASA Director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, James Hansen, whose testimony was summarized by the Associated Press banner, “NASA Scientist: We’re Toast.”

Hansen, who was later arrested three times during climate protests, said: “We see a tipping point right before our eyes…in five to ten years the Arctic will be sea ice free in the summer. “

Al Gore echoed that prediction to a German television audience at the UN climate conference, warning that “the whole ‘polarized’ cap of the North will be gone in five years.”

(He is always there.)

In fact, NONE of the dire apocalyptic predictions have come true.

Nevertheless, we are suffering dire economic and social consequences from unnecessary climate alarm energy policies based on precautionary “worst-case” climate model projections that even leading scientific contributors to the Intergovernmental Panel on Evolution Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations now admits that they are far too hot. .

As reported in the prestigious journal Nature, the latest set of more than 50 of the most recent simulations evaluated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6) are based on a myriad of complex and poorly understood influences, interrelationships and of “rough statistical waste”. – “garbage can” hypotheses.

Titled “Climate Simulations: Acknowledge the ‘Hot Model’ Problem,” May’s article points out, “Earth is a complex system of interconnected oceans, land, ice, and atmosphere, and no computer model could never exactly simulate all aspects of it”.

Since the different models vary in their complexity, “each makes different assumptions and approximations about processes that occur at small scales, such as cloud formation.”

As the current director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Gavin Schmidt, told the renowned journal Science, “It has become clear over the past year that we cannot avoid this confession” that the models cannot be considered a political instrument because “You end up with numbers, even in the short term, that are incredibly scary – and wrong.

And this is where we come back once again to today.

Larry Bell is a professor of space architecture at the University of Houston, where he founded the Sasakawa International Center for Space Architecture and the Space Architecture Graduate Program. His latest of 12 books is “Archi.tectures Beyond Boxes and Boundaries: My Life By Design” (2022). Read Larry Bell’s reports – More here.

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